Edinburgh Napier University

  This paper reports on a study which has been undertaken using data from the 1989 Bangladesh Fertility Survey (BFS) to determine the significance of influences on the probability of birth in the year preceding the survey. In the survey a total of 11 905 ever-married women of reproductive age were asked a battery of questions relating to fertility aspects of women. Variables selected in this study were grouped into demographic, socio-economic, cultural and decision-making variables. Findings from the study indicate that the mother's age, whether contraception has ever been used, the death of a child at any time, whether the woman has ever worked, religion, region of residence, and female independence are the important covariates for explaining recent fertility in Bangladesh. Models are developed for the probabilities of a woman giving birth in urban and rural areas, dependent on her demographic and socio-economic conditions. Also developed are models for contraceptive use in urban-rural Bangladesh. This modelling contributes to a better understanding of fertility changes in Bangladesh and the differentials between urban and rural fertility. It is indicated that a continued fertility decline is likely.