Edinburgh Napier University

  Collisions with ships are a major cause of mortality (~35%) for the severely endangered North Atlantic right whale Eubalaena glacialis, currently numbering only around 370 individuals. Although having a great impact upon the chances of survival of the species, right whale/ship encounters are a rare event, possibly only in single figures over a whole year. This simulation aims to give an insight into potential levels of risk associated with different vessel speeds and proximity to whales.
The modelled whale movements and interactions with shipping are based upon field data of right whale movement and incorporate some assumptions about right whale behaviours. The utility of the simulation is clearly dependent upon this input data, but even with some behavioural assumptions and poorly specified input, is expected to provide a better understanding of the interactions between right whales and ships.
The rarity of interactions between whales and ships requires several years to be simulated to produce sufficient collisions to draw conclusions about the effects of any changes in parameters. The crucial interactions between whales and ships require to be modelled with small time intervals. For the great majority of simulation run time such fine grain movement is unnecessary and would result in large simulation run times. Run time is greatly reduced by the use of dynamic variable temporal granularity to provide the maximum possible time interval for every step on a step-by-step basis.
It is intended that the simulation data could be used in an attempt to draw conclusions as to the most effective advice to be offered to shipping moving through an area where right whales are known to be present.