Edinburgh Napier University

  Background/Purpose: Midwife-led continuity of care (MLCC) is an evidence-based care model positively influencing the health and wellbeing of women and their families. Despite the evidence, a sustainable future of the model is uncertain. The aim of this paper is to give an example of a theoretical exercise that enhances the understanding of the trends and developments impacting MLCC's future state.

Methods: The industrial complex theory scaffolded the theoretical approach. The intuitive logics scenario development methodology was used to structure the key variables that influence the utility of MLCC. Dimensionally structured scenarios representing the probable, possible and probable MLCC futures were written.

Results: Thirteen key variables that greatly impact the future MLCC, with varying degrees of certainty were identified. A theoretical framework representing two underlying meta dimensions of MLCC was constructed: identity system of midwife-led continuity of care (fixed vs fluid) and embodied orientation to the world (reasoning vs meaning making). Within the framework, four different storylines of possible, plausible prospective futures emerged: Sense & sensibility, The birth of mothers, Too many sisters and One-stop-shop.

Conclusion: The paper is an example of how to approach the future of MLCC, the method serving as a tool to establish a theoretical truth of how its future state may unfold, the scenarios facilitating a dialogue among stakeholders and informing the public.