Future of Interactive technologies.

Mohammed, Nadia (2011) Future of Interactive technologies. PhD thesis, Edinburgh Napier Universtiy.

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The concept of interactivity continuously enhances our day-to-day living,
allowing us to experience a more convenient and enjoyable life style.
Existing analogue technologies such as the internet, mobile phone and
satellite have now entered their digital phase, making it possible to increase
their capacity for interactivity. The technologies which provide this
increased interactivity, namely the internet, mobile and television, are
classed as interactive technologies. Television has been successful at
marketing, having launched an interactivity interface known as iTV which
initially offered superior commercial prospects. However, after a decade,
the iTV industry is still quite young and has not reached its full potential.
This thesis adopts a range of research methodology with which to forecast
the future of interactive technologies, especially interactive TV (iTV).
The uptake of new interactive technologies depends on many factors,
notably the existing infrastructure in the country of adoption, cultural
attitudes to new technology, the radicalism of the technology, social
influences and interactions and ease of use, quality and cost. Beyond these,
many other significant factors influence the acceptance of interactive
technologies, the focus of this thesis is to ascertain the importance of those
factors mentioned on technology adoption.
This study has adopted technological and judgemental forecasting
techniques to predict the future of interactive technologies, following which
Cross- Cultural and Technology Acceptance studies were carried out to
investigate interactive technology adoption. In the Cross-Cultural study,
survey data were collected from the UK, Hong Kong and Pakistan so as to
examine cultural factors pertaining to the likelihood of adoption, while
Growth Curves were used to model and forecast future levels of adoption.
Then technology trends in different countries were collected from the global
marketing database Euromonitor. The Growth Curves, applied to a selection
of interactive technologies, were evaluated and compared to identify the most useful model with which to forecast the future of interactive
technologies. The findings identified the Bass Model, Simple Logistic
Model and Gompertz Model as the most suitable models for the purpose,
with different models identified as best for different cultures.
The Judgemental study established that WWW will be the dominant service
provider for financial services such as banking or financial products, while
iTV will be the dominant service provider for entertainment. WWW will in
fact be the dominant provider for most of the services, followed by iTV and
then WAP. It is most likely that WWW, WAP and iTV will exhibit
technology convergence in 20 years’ time and in all probability will
converge into WWW.
Further to this the Cross-Cultural study confirmed that there are significant
differences between cultures regarding the acceptance of interactive
technologies, as it is affected by demographic and social interactions and
influences. In addition, the study showed that each interactive technology
has its own significant elements which influence its acceptance. Overall, the
key elements identified as influencing acceptance of interactive
technologies were Knowledge and Confidence, followed by the number of
hours the individual spends with his or her family.
The Technology Acceptance study identified a technology acceptance
model for each interactive technology: WWW, WAP and iTV, which
established the factors expected to influence the future growth of the
technology. Managing these significant elements will assist further in
promoting the growth of interactive technologies

Item Type: Thesis (PhD)
Uncontrolled Keywords: Interactivity; interactive technologies; mobile phone; internet; television; iTV; forecasting; WAP;
University Divisions/Research Centres: The Business School > School of Accounting, Economics and Statistics
Dewey Decimal Subjects: 300 Social sciences > 330 Economics > 338 Production > 338.4 Secondary industries and services > 338.47 Services & products
Library of Congress Subjects: H Social Sciences > HE Transportation and Communications
Item ID: 4659
Depositing User: Mrs Lyn Gibson
Date Deposited: 17 Oct 2011 08:17
Last Modified: 17 Oct 2011 08:17

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