Canduela, Jesus (2003) Forecasting decisions in complex situations. In: 23rd International Symposium on Forecasting, 15-18 June 2003, Merida, Yucatan, Mexico.

Abstract/Description

It is well understood that different functions in organisations have different forecasting and planning requirements and treat and value forecasts differently. This presentation is a report of a study of forecasting in a large fast moving consumer goods (fmcg) company. A series of interviews have been conducted from key points in the flow of forecasts and information through the company, from initial generation to the interface with the customer. The findings do show a difference in the value of the forecast and the way they are used or abused. Also emerging is clear indication of the social-political influences on the planning process. From this qualitative work recommendations are made on to how to improve forecasting. Finally the prospects of a unified approach which can be generalised throughout fmcg companies and up and down supply chain is discussed.

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