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The application of prediction capability and adaptive target control to the newspaper business.

Pearson, Mike (2006) The application of prediction capability and adaptive target control to the newspaper business. European Journal of Operational Research, 168 (2). pp. 475-491. ISSN 0377 2217

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    Abstract/Description

    A newspaper wholesaler determines the optimal supply of newspapers, which minimises costs or maximises profit when demand is uncertain. Targets concerning the mean number of unsold newspapers and the probability of not stocking out are commonly used in the absence of known costs. These targets help to strike a balance between excessive wastage (overage) and increased stock-outs (underage). Wholesalers also use various methods of predicting demand, some of which achieve one of the targets while others achieve both. We investigate the relationship between these targets and the prediction method. We say that a prediction method is ‘capable’ if both targets can be achieved when using that method. We introduce a technique for adapting targets, which renders the prediction method capable. We show how optimality is achieved while preserving prediction capability. We use a case study drawn from the newspaper business to illustrate the automatic allocation of newspapers.

    Item Type: Article
    Print ISSN: 0377 2217
    Uncontrolled Keywords: Inventory; Newsvendor; Automatic allocation; Forecasting; time series; Production Management; Newspapers;
    University Divisions/Research Centres: The Business School > School of Accounting, Economics and Statistics
    Dewey Decimal Subjects: 000 Computer science, information & general works > 070 News media, journalism & publishing
    300 Social sciences > 330 Economics > 338 Production
    600 Technology > 650 Management & public relations > 658 General management
    Library of Congress Subjects: H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD28 Management. Industrial Management
    Item ID: 2122
    Depositing User: RAE Import
    Date Deposited: 29 Feb 2008 11:00
    Last Modified: 26 Mar 2013 11:34
    URI: http://researchrepository.napier.ac.uk/id/eprint/2122

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