Evaluating train protection systems.

Riddington, G, Beck, M and Cowie, Jonathan (2004) Evaluating train protection systems. Journal of Operational Research Society, 55 (6). pp. 606-613. ISSN 0160 5682

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    This paper arose from the work carried out for the Cullen/Uff Joint Inquiry into Train Protection Systems. It is concerned with the problem of evaluating the benefits of safety enhancements in order to avoid rare, but catastrophic accidents, and the role of Operations Research in the process. The problems include both input values and representation of outcomes. A key input is the value of life. This paper briefly discusses why the value of life might vary from incident to incident and reviews alternative estimates before producing a 'best estimate' for rail. When the occurrence of an event is uncertain, the normal method is to apply a single 'expected' value. This paper argues that a more effective method of representing such situations is through Monte-Carlo simulation and demonstrates the use of the methodology on a case study of the decision as to whether or not advanced train protection (ATP) should have been installed on a route to the west of London. This paper suggests that the output is more informative than traditional cost-benefit appraisals or engineering event tree approaches. It also shows that, unlike the results from utilizing the traditional approach, the value of ATP on this route would be positive over 50% of the time.

    Item Type: Article
    Print ISSN: 0160 5682
    Electronic ISSN: 1476 9360
    Uncontrolled Keywords: Accidents; Probability; Advanced train protection; ATP; Safety measures; Cost-benefit; Rail transport; Risk; Simulation;
    University Divisions/Research Centres: Faculty of Engineering, Computing and Creative Industries > School of Engineering and the Built Environment
    Dewey Decimal Subjects: 300 Social sciences > 360 Social problems & social services > 363 Other social problems & services
    500 Science > 510 Mathematics > 510 Mathematics
    300 Social sciences > 380 Commerce, communications & transportation > 385 Railroad transportation
    Library of Congress Subjects: H Social Sciences > HE Transportation and Communications
    Q Science > QA Mathematics
    H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD61 Risk Management
    Item ID: 1889
    Depositing User: RAE Import
    Date Deposited: 11 Mar 2008 11:54
    Last Modified: 10 May 2013 13:21

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