Adland, Roar and Cullinane, Kevin (2005) A time-varying risk premium in the term structure of bulk shipping freight rates. Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, 39 (2). pp. 191-208. ISSN 0022-5258
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This paper presents a simple argument, based on logic and maritime economic theory alone, for rejecting the applicability of the expectations theory in bulk shipping freight markets. It is shown that the risk premium must be time varying and must, in a systematic fashion, depend upon freight market conditions and the duration of a period time charter. The signs of the risk premium attributable to the various risk factors are derived where possible and the conclusion is drawn that the theoretical net risk premium will usually be negative, but may change for a short-term period charter in a strong freight market.
|Uncontrolled Keywords:||maritime economic theory; bulk shipping freight markets;|
|University Divisions/Research Centres:||Edinburgh Napier University, Transport Research Institute|
|Dewey Decimal Subjects:||300 Social sciences > 380 Commerce, communications & transportation > 387 Water, air & space transportation|
300 Social sciences > 330 Economics > 330 Economics
|Library of Congress Subjects:||H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory|
H Social Sciences > HE Transportation and Communications
|Depositing User:||RAE Import|
|Date Deposited:||28 May 2008 10:01|
|Last Modified:||23 Apr 2014 11:06|
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